The Puerto Vallarta Condo Market: Mid-Year 2026
Condos only · Existing vs. pre-construction · Year-over-year Covering January 1 through June 8, 2026 vs. the same period in 2025
By Nik Valcic, AMPI/NAR · Live AMPI/MLSVallarta data · Prices in USD · June 8, 2026
Condos make up roughly 80% of the residential market in Puerto Vallarta, so when people talk about "the PV real estate market," they're mostly talking about condos. This report splits that market into two pieces that behave very differently — existing (resale) condos and pre-construction — because blending them together, the way the standard one-button MLS report does, hides more than it reveals.
Let's look at some real numbers...
Across all condos, year-to-date:
Metric | 2026 YTD | vs. 2025 YTD |
Active listings | 4,444 | -4% vs. 4,646 last year |
New listings YTD | 1,125 | -39% vs. 1,860 last year |
Under contract | 538 | -22% vs. 691 last year |
Units sold YTD | 429 | -30% vs. 613 last year |
Total sold volume | $219.3M | -28% vs. $302.6M last year |
Avg. sale price | $511,263 | +4% vs. $493,649 last year (median $418,756, +12%) |
Read at face value, that's a market down 30% in units and 28% in dollars — with prices somehow up 4%. Neither number tells the real story.
The one thing to take from this report: "condos down 30%" is almost entirely a pre-construction story. Split the two segments and they move in opposite directions. Existing (resale) condos are up about 5% in units and roughly flat in dollars — a healthy, transacting segment. Pre-construction is down about 61% in units — developer absorption has collapsed and inventory is piling up. The blended "+4% average price" is also misleading: resale prices are actually down about 4%; the average only rises because the cheaper pre-construction product is a shrinking share of the mix. That's composition, not appreciation.
Existing (resale) vs. pre-construction, side by side
Existing / Resale | Pre-Construction | |
Units sold YTD | 301 (+5%) | 128 (-61%) |
Sold volume YTD | $161.5M (+1%) | $57.9M (-59%) |
Avg. sale price | $536,445 (-4%) | $452,046 (+4%) |
Median sale price | $430,000 (flat) | $385,989 (+17%) |
SP/LP ratio | 96% (flat) | 97% (+1pt) |
Median days on market | 180 | 461 |
Active listings (allocated) | ≈1,705 | ≈2,740 |
Months of supply | ≈30 | ≈112 |
Resale is the working market. More units changed hands than a year ago (+5%), dollar volume held (+1%), and homes are clearing at 96% of list price in a median of 180 days — fast by PV standards. The 4% dip in average resale price is a mix shift toward mid-priced units, not broad weakness: the median sale price is flat at $430,000, meaning the typical resale condo sold for the same price as last year. Well-located, correctly-priced inventory is still moving.
Pre-construction is where the softness lives. Developer absorption is down 61%, and against the MLS condo inventory, the pre-sale share works out to roughly 2,740 active units — about 112 months of supply at the current sales pace, versus roughly 30 months for resale. The 461-day median selling time reflects off-plan timelines, but the volume of unsold inventory is the real signal: a meaningful overhang of developer product competing for a smaller pool of buyers. The "+4% average pre-con price" is composition — a handful of high-end Marina and South Shore closings — not a market-wide lift.
Why this matters for the blended number: last year pre-construction was 54% of condo unit sales; this year it's 30%. When a cheaper segment shrinks that fast, the all-condo average price rises on arithmetic alone. Anyone quoting "+4% condo appreciation" is reading a composition effect. The segment that actually sets resale comps — existing condos — is down about 4%.
Where we're tracking to finish the year
We're 44% of the way through 2026, and about half of last year's condo dollar volume had closed by this date. Holding the current pace against last year's seasonal pattern, here's where 2026 is projected to finish. The method: apply this year's year-to-date change to last year's full-year actual — a pace estimate, not a forecast.
Segment | Through Jun 8 '25 | Through Jun 8 '26 | Full-year 2025 actual | Projected FY2026 | vs. '25 |
All condos — units | 613 | 429 | 1,212 | 848 | -30% |
All condos — $ volume | $302.6M | $219.3M | $596.4M | $432.3M | -28% |
Resale — units | 286 | 301 | 618 | 650 | +5% |
Resale — $ volume | $159.9M | $161.5M | $334.5M | $337.9M | +1% |
Pre-con — units | 327 | 128 | 594 | 233 | -61% |
Pre-con — $ volume | $142.7M | $57.9M | $261.9M | $106.2M | -59% |
The read: the condo market as a whole is tracking to finish roughly 30% lighter in units and 28% lighter in dollars — but that's the pre-construction segment falling to about a third of last year's output. Resale, the part of the market that sets real comps and carries existing-owner equity, is on pace to match or modestly exceed last year on both units and dollars. A reader looking only at the top-line "condos down 30%" would badly misjudge where the resale market is actually headed.
Second-half wildcards cut both ways: World Cup overflow demand (Guadalajara hosts four matches June 11–26) and intact December–March forward bookings could lift the back half; continued pressure on North American discretionary travel could weigh on it. Pre-construction in particular can move in lumps as individual developments deliver and close in batches.
Resale condo neighborhoods, year over year
This is the comp set — the areas most buyers and sellers of existing condos are actually working in.
Area | Sold (T/L) | Vol. YoY | Average (YoY) | Median (YoY) | SP/LP |
Centro South | 52 / 59 | -12% | $452,200 (-30%) | $425,000 (-22%) | 96% |
Centro North | 23 / 24 | -4% | $401,516 (+13%) | $360,000 (+4%) | 94% |
Marina | 21 / 25 | -16% | $737,149 (+5%) | $599,000 (-3%) | 96% |
Francisco Villa West | 20 / 10 | +100% | $304,486 (+23%) | $295,000 (+24%) | 98% |
Bucerías | 32 / 24 | +33% | $477,033 (+5%) | $408,000 (+20%) | 94% |
Hotel Zone | 28 / 25 | +12% | $633,250 (+12%) | $462,500 (+23%) | 97% |
Nuevo Vallarta West | 38 / 25 | +52% | $538,515 (-13%) | $439,500 (+17%) | 95% |
South Shore | 32 / 42 | -24% | $841,325 (+5%) | $712,500 (+1%) | 95% |
La Cruz de Huanacaxtle | 14 / 10 | +40% | $602,714 (-15%) | $596,000 (-17%) | 96% |
Flamingos | 10 / 8 | +25% | $815,427 (+54%) | $1,005,000 (+63%) | 97% |
Sayulita | 4 / 4 | flat | $741,250 (+54%) | $820,000 (+71%) | 95% |
Aramara | 3 / 10 | -70% | $221,667 (-12%) | $240,000 (+2%) | 94% |
Sold counts shown as this year / last year. Thin-sample areas should be read with caution.
Resale bright spots: Bucerías (+33% units), Nuevo Vallarta West (+52%), La Cruz (+40%), and Hotel Zone (+12%) all moved more units than a year ago. Soft spot: Centro South — volume off 12% and prices down on both measures, the clearest weak pocket in this dataset. South Shore holds premium pricing (median $712,500) on lower volume. Sayulita and Aramara samples are thin this year — read those with caution.
Why average and median differ, and why to read both: the average divides total dollars by the number of sales, so a few high-end closings pull it upward — that's why the average runs 15–20% above the median in almost every area here. The median is the middle sale, half above and half below, so it ignores the extremes and tracks the typical transaction. When the two move together, the price change is broad and real. When they split, it's composition, not a change in underlying value: in Nuevo Vallarta West the average fell 13% while the median rose 17%, meaning typical units actually sold higher and the average was dragged down by thinner high-end activity. Read the median for what a normal buyer or seller will experience, and the average for total market value and to catch when the top of the market is moving differently from the middle.
Pre-construction condo neighborhoods, year over year
Area | Sold (T/L) | Vol. YoY | Average (YoY) | Median (YoY) | Active (alloc.) |
Centro South | 20 / 30 | -33% | $443,489 (+7%) | $455,000 (+9%) | 250 |
Centro North | 17 / 21 | -19% | $347,794 (-3%) | $294,000 (-21%) | 260 |
Marina | 13 / 61 | -79% | $960,906 (+146%) | $836,000 (+175%) | 175 |
Francisco Villa West | 12 / 54 | -78% | $304,437 (-2%) | $286,000 (-6%) | 255 |
Bucerías | 17 / 43 | -60% | $473,377 (-19%) | $431,000 (-2%) | 335 |
Hotel Zone | 3 / 38 | -92% | $359,315 (-34%) | $325,000 (-11%) | 275 |
Nuevo Vallarta West | 3 / 23 | -87% | $422,952 (+5%) | $461,000 (+24%) | 190 |
South Shore | 0 / 0 | — | — | — | 80 |
La Cruz de Huanacaxtle | 10 / 29 | -66% | $412,633 (-28%) | $455,000 (+3%) | 200 |
Flamingos | 2 / 6 | -67% | $292,674 (-16%) | $293,000 (-15%) | 135 |
Sayulita | 6 / 5 | +20% | $631,701 (+1%) | $620,000 (-12%) | 60 |
Aramara | 13 / 15 | -13% | $391,638 (+16%) | $387,000 (+28%) | 150 |
Absorption collapsed almost everywhere — down 60–92% across most areas — while roughly 2,740 pre-sale units sit active against just 128 closings year-to-date. Marina (-79%), Francisco Villa West (-78%), Hotel Zone (-92%), and Nuevo Vallarta West (-87%) saw the steepest drops in developer sales. South Shore shows the overhang at its starkest: standing pre-sale inventory, zero pre-con closings this year. For buyers, that's negotiating leverage on new-build; for resale sellers, it's discounted developer stock competing in the same building.
Treat pre-con neighborhood prices with caution. Both the average and the median swing hard here because developers close in batches of one or two models, and several areas rest on a handful of sales — so the two columns can diverge wildly (La Cruz: average -28%, median +3%). Marina's "+146% average" is three high-end towers closing, not a market move; Hotel Zone, Nuevo Vallarta West, and Flamingos are too thin (three or fewer sales) to read at all. The reliable signals on this page are the volume collapse and the inventory overhang, not the per-unit price line.
Resale condos on a $/m² basis — the cleaner comp
Average unit price moves with whatever size of unit happened to sell. Price per square meter strips that out, so it's the truer read on what condo values actually did. On this basis, the resale market softened more than the average suggested: median resale $/m² is $3,388, down 9% from $3,704 — versus the -4% the average unit price showed. The gap is a mix shift: larger units (lower $/m², higher total price) made up more of the sales, pulling the average up while per-meter values fell.
Area | N (2026) | Median $/m² '26 | $/m² '25 | YoY | What it reveals |
Centro South | 52 | $4,611 | $5,229 | -12% | |
Centro North | 23 | $2,823 | $3,706 | -24% | avg price said +13% |
Marina | 21 | $4,112 | $3,614 | +14% | genuine per-m² gain |
Francisco Villa West | 20 | $2,662 | $2,744 | -3% | avg said +23% |
Bucerías | 32 | $3,356 | $3,634 | -8% | |
Hotel Zone | 28 | $3,824 | $3,514 | +9% | genuine gain |
Nuevo Vallarta West | 38 | $2,862 | $2,890 | -1% | flat, not -13% |
South Shore | 32 | $4,459 | $4,460 | flat | premium holding |
La Cruz de Huanacaxtle | 14 | $3,192 | $3,144 | +2% | held, avg said -15% |
Flamingos | 10 | $4,406 | $3,832 | +15% | |
Sayulita | 4 | $3,938 | $2,992 | +32% | thin sample |
Aramara | 3 | $1,568 | $2,554 | -39% | thin sample |
Where $/m² flips the story: several areas look fine on average price but soft per meter — Centro North reads +13% on average price yet is down 24% per m² (bigger units sold), and Francisco Villa West's +23% average is really -3% per meter. The reverse also happens: La Cruz looks down 15% on average but per-meter values actually held (+2%), and Nuevo Vallarta West is flat per meter, not the -13% the average implied. South Shore is the cleanest premium signal — flat per meter, confirming it's genuinely holding, not just selling bigger units.
Genuine per-meter strength shows up in Marina (+14%), Flamingos (+15%), and Hotel Zone (+9%) — those gains survive the size adjustment, so they're real, not composition. Genuine softness is Centro South (-12%) and Bucerías (-8%). Sayulita and Aramara samples are too thin to read.
Bottom line for buyers and sellers
Resale — pace to FY26 | +5% units | $338M projected vs. $335M last year |
Pre-con — pace to FY26 | -61% units | $106M projected vs. $262M last year |
Resale price YoY | -9% /m² | $3,388/m² median · -4% on avg. unit price |
Pre-con months of supply | ≈112 | vs. ≈30 for resale |
For buyers: The action is in resale — it's transacting, and correctly-priced units still clear at 96% of list in about six months. Pre-construction is the opposite situation: a large standing inventory of developer product and collapsed absorption, which is negotiating leverage if you want new-build, not urgency. There is no supply squeeze coming in either segment. If rental income is part of your thesis, underwrite at 42–50% occupancy, not the 60% that circulates in developer presentations.
For sellers: If you own resale and price to today's reality, you're in the stronger half of the market — buyers are active and your competition is finite. If you're reselling a pre-construction unit, understand what you're up against: developer inventory in your own building, often discounted, with roughly 112 months of supply behind it. Price accordingly or expect a long hold. The 96% resale SP/LP says the market still pays fair value for fairly-priced product — it does not reward aspirational pricing.
And keep the proportion in mind: condos are roughly 80% of the residential market here, so the condo split is, in effect, the market. The story the blended numbers tell — "down 30%" — is true only of the developer pipeline. The lived-in, resale market most owners and most buyers actually transact in is holding its ground.
How we got these numbers
All figures are drawn from AMPI/MLSVallarta data for condominiums only, covering January 1 through June 8 in both 2026 and 2025, in USD. Sold counts, dollar volume, average price, and price per square meter are computed directly from closed transactions — permanent, dated records — which is why they reconcile exactly with the MLS's own year-over-year totals.
What this report adds to the standard one-button MLS trends report is the separation of existing (resale) condos from pre-construction. The standard report blends the two; here they're split, because resale is the segment that sets real comparables and reflects what existing owners can actually expect. Price per square meter uses the median of the MLS sold-price-per-meter field, which strips unit-size distortion out of the average.
Both average and median sold prices are shown. The median — the midpoint sale — runs 15–20% below the average here because a small number of high-end closings pull the average up. The median is the better guide to a typical transaction; the average is the better guide to total market value. Where the two move differently (resale average -4% but median flat), the gap is a mix shift, not a change in what a typical unit is worth.
The year-end figures are a pace estimate: last year's full-year actual scaled by this year's year-to-date change, assuming the rest of 2026 follows last year's seasonal closing pattern. It's a projection, not a forecast.
Listing counts (active, new, under contract) are taken from the live AMPI/MLSVallarta year-over-year report, so they match the standard MLS trends report exactly. Because that report cannot separate construction status, the resale-versus-pre-con inventory split and months of supply are allocated from the MLS condo total using the share in the construction-tagged data. Sold metrics are computed from closings and are the basis for every conclusion here. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Nik Valcic MexHome Realtor · AMPI/NAR mexhome.com/agent/nik-valcic nik@mexhome.com · +52-322-274-7775 · CA/US: 778-300-0159
Sales data: AMPI/MLSVallarta, condos only, YTD January 1–June 8, 2026 vs. 2025, with full-year 2025 actuals; prices in USD. Existing = MLS Pre-Construction ≠ Y. Projection applies year-to-date change to full-year 2025 actual and assumes last year's seasonal pattern holds; pace estimate, not a forecast. Months of supply = current active ÷ year-to-date monthly sales rate. STR underwriting reference: AirDNA/AirROI. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
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